Assessing the ‘Trump Risk’ to European Security

This paper identifies several security risks that would need to be considered by European policymakers ahead of the election on 5th November 2024, which include: the undermining of NATO’s Article 5 treaty commitments, a breakdown of diplomatic communication between the USA and Europe, US withdrawal of troops and military assets from Europe, US withdrawal of intelligence sharing with European partners, the introduction of tariffs and the collapse of the WTO, and a PRC invasion or embargo of Taiwan. 

The most notable policy area a second term Trump Presidency will impact is the Russo-Ukrainian war, for which Trump has proposed a peace plan. This peace plan will likely fail for several reasons: Russia wants more, it misunderstands Russia’s war aims, it will face European and Ukrainian opposition, and it will face domestic opposition and strong reactions internationally. At the same time Trump appears to have left political room to manoeuvre on Ukraine policy when it comes to the provision of lethal aid, strategic ambiguity, and diplomatic leverage, and he could be swayed by domestic political pressure or diplomatic pressure from allies. 

This paper recommends European countries pre-emptively shore up and increase defence spending including through the creation of a NATO bank, develop and deepen defence capabilities through a UK-EU Defence Treaty, a UK-Germany Defence Treaty, and an upgraded Lancaster House UK-France Defence Treaty, reassess not just the level of the military aid to Ukraine but the quantity and appropriate quality and offer air defence zones in Western Ukraine to protect critical infrastructure, and the UK should guarantee Five Eyes intelligence sharing.